Energy Demand Forecast for the Industrialization of Nigeria Using Time-Series Analysis Model
Abstract
The growth of a country is largely dependent on the supply of adequate, affordable and reliable electric power. For Nigeria to be in tandem with other developed countries of the world which have exhibited a remarkable growth in economic development and become an industrialized nation, the existing gap between the electric power demand and supply of the country must be holistically bridged. The problems associated with poor, inadequate and unsupplied power to industries have been estimated in different ways by many studies. These studies evaluated various types of value of unproduced output and outage costs, such as equipment and material losses. It is a common knowledge in Nigeria that industries rely more on private (off-grid) power generation than the national grid. The diesel and petrol plants are commonly used generators and at times gas turbine plant, with the relative consequence of high cost of fueling. This alternative source of energy and technology has a direct negative impact on the cost of production as well as services. Within the ambient of socio-economic development and increase in human population, electric load demand is on the increase over the years. This research studies a load demand forecast for industrial areas of the power sector using-series as a tool for analysis. The results show that there is need to constantly improve its power generation, transmission and distribution network to deliver at least 20,000MW of power to its industries in other to meets the estimated or forecasted power of 19576.05 MW on or before the year 2030.