Abstract

This study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate and prioritize renewable energy technologies for decarbonization in Nigeria, considering five key criteria: cost, CO₂ emission reduction, availability, maintenance, and social acceptance. Expert judgment was used to construct pairwise comparison matrices for these criteria and five renewable energy alternatives: solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, biomass, hydropower, and geothermal. The results reveal CO₂ emission reduction as the most critical factor, receiving a weight of 0.416, followed by availability (0.262) and cost (0.161). Geothermal energy emerged as the highest-ranked option with a priority score of 0.241, indicating its superior potential for decarbonization. Wind and solar PV ranked second and third, with priority scores of 0.226 and 0.203, respectively. Biomass and hydropower scored lower, with priority values of 0.172 and 0.158, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that even with a 10% increase in CO₂ reduction weight, geothermal remained the top choice, with a slight increase in score (0.241 to 0.255). These findings offer evidence-based insights for Nigeria’s renewable energy policy, emphasizing the need for targeted investments and further exploration of geothermal resources.